Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 90856.008776 95833.192781 100809.036822 106153.424248 111727.782082 117367.117760 123499.979510
2025-11-23 82323.423373 89888.954750 97662.474956 106236.470290 115417.701053 124943.885323 135564.773603
2025-11-30 77267.968090 86681.191794 96561.332230 107683.835793 119834.949478 132685.282966 147280.995298
2025-12-07 73107.053059 83898.606593 95429.021768 108631.273254 123294.123022 139044.025350 157204.581747
2025-12-14 69102.260815 80919.105045 93745.476765 108651.884003 125447.048978 143732.283870 165091.367828
2025-12-21 65868.623783 78549.755698 92510.588653 108952.710467 127716.093662 148388.835803 172813.282846
2025-12-28 63846.294908 77394.842524 92501.168826 110504.564639 131283.344406 154418.189767 182026.064649
2026-01-04 61821.528938 76101.821459 92214.447013 111630.444348 134275.839351 159734.432091 190395.609050
2026-01-11 59769.833033 74660.721723 91652.874966 112343.424650 136714.397016 164362.483194 197946.823652
2026-01-18 57618.058162 72995.602327 90734.458667 112551.001722 138490.796530 168173.016743 204521.269683
2026-01-25 55690.648384 71511.029147 89950.268893 112843.989856 140307.129959 171987.952813 211079.192923
2026-02-01 53790.608147 69979.558689 89037.861798 112916.987385 141807.019901 175392.740861 217135.090439
2026-02-08 52579.450590 69260.461872 89085.374035 114140.351595 144697.167543 180479.770354 225254.641728
2026-02-15 50806.292786 67781.918026 88153.337055 114125.808208 146059.937851 183730.702489 231190.345470
2026-02-22 49910.426111 67361.688630 88488.708335 115638.883632 149266.115442 189196.149453 239809.689121
2026-03-01 48824.892985 66657.152693 88433.934911 116638.692225 151824.100698 193874.719827 247494.590964
2026-03-08 47338.274848 65388.449674 87627.251752 116659.586677 153141.465967 197025.799749 253319.772846
2026-03-15 46072.472144 64360.979995 87085.702825 116978.258265 154802.276411 200583.164912 259644.308844
2026-03-22 45479.315777 64183.624191 87604.110384 118623.008488 158117.139593 206184.713225 268511.040910
2026-03-29 44719.090386 63758.298553 87781.654705 119816.155277 160856.110876 211079.575510 276528.386448
2026-04-05 43807.181158 63101.506818 87634.540341 120571.672336 163028.399413 215269.302814 283686.024593
2026-04-12 42710.385075 62164.167069 87092.997645 120791.624326 164499.541468 218574.495858 289746.016032
2026-04-19 41701.075287 61314.568044 86639.353912 121102.072542 166069.999742 221998.455801 295963.387051